Nintendo third in U.S., Microsoft non-factor in Japan.

Analysts (game industry weathermen) Michael Pachter and Edward Woo published a 188-page report for Morgan Wedbush securities that detailed the arc of the next-generation console sales.

The magic 8-ball of information has Microsoft leading the marketshare through 2007, with Sony overtaking them after 2007 and Nintendo is expected to finish third. However, in Japan, the story is changes. Again, Sony is expected to lead the market, with Nintendo in second and Microsoft isn't expected to be a factor across the sea.

Comparisons are drawn between Sony's PS2 and PS3 positioning, because both machines are offering a new disc format (PS2 was DVD and PS3 is Blu-Ray) to consumers and PS3 is expected (like its predecessor) to undercut the price of Blu-Ray players, which may increase interest in the next-generation platform.

However, the report also points out that Blu-Ray won't become desirable until consumers make the leap to high definition television. In the stopgap between standard def and hi-def televisions is Nintendo's Wii. Considering how unconventional of a gaming platform the Wii is shaping up to be, it remains to be seen if the Wii will fill that HD-free hole. If it doesn't, users may snatch up still-supported PS2s or gravitate toward the more conventionally next-gen Xbox 360 for their gaming platform.

News-Source: http://xbox.1up.com