Analysts are lining up to declare that PlayStation 3's arrival won't be until the fall, although one has gone as far as tagging numbers to the launch.

Quoted in Interactive Investor today, Evan Wilson of Pacific Crest Securities, said that PS3 will "most likely" be released in November with 1 million units, followed by a European launch in March 2007. He said the Japanese launch would also be backed by about a million units this summer.

Despite speculation of high launch prices - some quoting a ludicrously high $700 mark - these numbers will certainly lead to severe shortages. Sony will struggle to meet retail demand with a million units at launch, and will face the same kind of criticism leveled at Microsoft if it fails to back the launch up with regular pre-Holiday shipments.

Xbox 360 managed to ship (and sell through) about 1.3 million units of Xbox 360 in the run up to the Holidays. Although these are global figures, the majority were sold through in North America. The launch has been stricken by shortages and it's clear that a U.S. hardware launch requires more than a million units. Analysts are concerned that it may be the same story again for Sony.

To put that million figure into context, if Sony supplied just three chains - Best Buy, GameStop and Wal-Mart, each store would receive just 125 units (est. 8,000 outlets). Anyone who has stood in a line on the launch day of a major console, will understand the implications of these stats; and that doesn't include supplying all the other chains and online retailers.

Happy Microsoft

William Drewry of Credit Suisse First Boston said, "The decision as to whether to delay the PS3 launch has yet to be made and is dependent on improving its chip yield."

Although Sony talked about a spring launch for PS3 last year, it has never offered regional specifics. A 'delay' until November will be good news for Microsoft, which has bet its strategy for the next generation on selling as many Xbox 360s as possible prior to PS3's arrival. But Microsoft will be even happier if Sony struggles with shortages later this year while it will have ironed out all its manufacturing problems.

News-Source: http://www.next-gen.biz
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